We're not waving, but drowning
- 30 Ottobre 2018
- by Blogger
Federal Reserve Chairman, Powell, has been openly criticised by President Trump; whilst this may not cause the FOMC to reverse their tightening, they will want to avoid going down in history as the committee that precipitated an end to Federal Reserve independence.
There is a great chance that the S&P 500 will decline further. Wednesday’s low was 2652. The largest one month correction this year is still that which occurred in February (303 points). We are not far away, however, a move below 2637 will fuel fears. I believe it is a breakdown through the February low, of 2533, which will prompt a more aggressive global move out of risk assets. The narrower Dow Jones Industrials has actually broken to new lows for the year and the NASDAQ suffered its largest one day decline in seven years this week.
A close below 2352 for the S&P 500 would constitute a 20% correction – a technical bear-market. If the market retraces to the 2016 low (1810) the correction will be 38%; if we reach that point the US Treasury yield curve will probably be close to an inversion: and from a very low level of absolute rates. If the stock correction reaches the 2016 lows, a rapid reversal of Federal Reserve policy will be required to avoid accusations that the Fed deliberately engineered the disaster. I envisage the Fed calling upon other central banks to render assistance via another concert party of quantitative, perhaps backed up by qualitative, easing.
The situation looks dire – history may not repeat but it tends to rhyme. Among the principal problems back in 2008 was an excess of debt, today the level of indebtedness is even greater… And we're not waving, but drowning.
Greyerz: China Just Took Delivery Of A Massive Amount Of Gold From London & New York
Egon von Greyerz met with a large group of individuals from China that manage money for the elite in China.
They went to Switzerland to meet with Egon and this is a small portion of what they discussed:
“Egon, they (the money managers for the elite in China) have virtually all of the high net worth clients into (physical) gold.”
The Chinese Know What Is Happening
Egon von Greyerz:
“They’re all into gold. Absolutely. Yes, virtually all of them own gold. That’s what’s so interesting. The Chinese buying is continuously going up and up and up without stopping. The Chinese know what is happening. They know it and they will continue to buy gold. And one day that’s going to have a major influence on the gold price. And when the paper market breaks, and China dominates the gold market, it’s going to be very interesting because I really look forward to the West failing in their manipulation of the gold price through the various paper markets and through the interbank market."
China Just Took Delivery Of A Massive Amount Of Gold From London & New York
Again last month we saw imports of gold into Switzerland and then exports to Asia and India. Last month, over 70% of the gold import figures (into Switzerland) came from London and the United States.
We again see that Switzerland is buying the 400 ounce bars from the UK and US bullion banks and converting them into 1 kilo bars and then shipping them on to Asia. Last month there was hardly any buying from the mines. It all came out of London and New York.
And that proves again, Eric, that central banks are either leasing their physical gold into the market or selling it covertly. And that gold that’s coming into the market in London and New York, before it used to stay in London and stay in New York and it would be traded between the various banks, these banks now get the gold from the central banks and then they give the central bank an IOU. Again, in normal times, the gold used to stay in London and New York. Now that gold is going via Switzerland to China and India and it will never come back. China is never going to send it back, nor is India.
So what’s going to happen? All they have — these central banks — who have probably leased most of their gold, all they have is an IOU from a bullion bank and that bullion banks is never going to get the physical gold back. That’s another massive shortage that’s created an enormous imbalance in the gold market and when the whole thing blows up it’s going to put enormous upward pressure on the gold price. That day is coming...
To continue listening to Egon von Greyerz discuss his meeting with the Chinese and what they are up to in the gold market as well as what other surprises are in store for the last two months of 2018, click here...
Source: King World News
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